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Investing.com - TD Cowen lowered its price target on ExxonMobil stock (NYSE:XOM) to $172 from $175 while maintaining a Buy rating, the firm said Thursday. The energy giant, with a market cap of $639.86 billion, has delivered a strong 60% return over the past year despite recent headwinds.
The firm reduced its first-quarter 2026 earnings estimate by $1.17 per share to $0.88 per share, compared to consensus of $1.53 per share. TD Cowen identified $0.93 per share in timing headwinds that are expected to reverse. Investors will get clarity when ExxonMobil reports earnings on April 24, just 14 days away.
Upstream realizations and downstream margins came in weaker than forecast. The firm’s guidance implies all of ExxonMobil’s Middle East production is shut in.
TD Cowen expects the timing headwinds to reverse in the next two quarters. The firm modestly reduced its second-quarter and third-quarter estimates based on weaker commodities futures and weaker chemicals earnings, accounting for higher naphtha prices. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock is trading near its Fair Value, while the company has maintained dividend payments for 56 consecutive years—a testament to its financial resilience. For deeper insights, investors can access XOM’s comprehensive Pro Research Report, one of 1,400+ available on the platform, along with 10 additional ProTips.
The firm does not expect ExxonMobil to alter its capital program, outside of money to repair damaged liquefied natural gas trains, or its buyback program. TD Cowen values the stock at 7.7% on fiscal 2026 free cash flow, 6.7% on fiscal 2027, and 6.4% on fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030, accounting for buybacks.
In other recent news, ExxonMobil’s earnings and revenue projections have undergone several revisions from various financial firms. Piper Sandler has lowered its first-quarter 2026 earnings per share estimate for ExxonMobil to $1.05 from $2.17, citing weaker-than-expected performance in refining, chemicals, and specialty products. RBC Capital also revised its earnings estimate for the company to $1.17 per share from $2.12, while reducing its cash flow from operations estimate to $14.5 billion from $15.5 billion. Mizuho updated its recurring earnings per share estimate to $1.19, down from a previous estimate of $2.56, noting earnings headwinds.
Jefferies, on the other hand, raised its price target to $184 from $178, maintaining a Buy rating and highlighting timing effects and Middle East disruptions in its analysis. Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets reiterated its Market Perform rating with a $160 price target, adjusting its estimates due to significant impacts from Middle East operations. Piper Sandler also adjusted its price target, lowering it to $182 from $186 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Lastly, RBC Capital raised its price target to $180 from $160, driven by a higher commodity outlook. These updates reflect a complex landscape for ExxonMobil as analysts weigh various operational and market factors.
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