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KeyCorp is set to report first-quarter results before the market opens Thursday, a closely watched report that will test whether the Cleveland-based regional bank can sustain the robust loan growth that has powered its start to 2026. Analysts expect earnings of $0.41 per share and revenue of $1.94 billion, representing year-over-year EPS growth of 26% but a 6.3% revenue decline. The expectations mark a sequential step back from the bank’s fourth-quarter performance, when it earned $0.43 per share on revenue of $2.01 billion.
Wall Street analysts rate the stock a Buy, with a mean price target of $24.03 implying 11% upside from the current $21.63 share price. Yet EPS estimates have shown mixed momentum: while forecasts have risen 1.2% over the past 60 days, they’ve ticked 0.4% lower over the past week, suggesting some recent caution. Revenue estimates have remained essentially flat.
The muted estimate trends belie what has been a strong start to the year for KeyCorp’s core lending business. The bank disclosed in a recent conference that total loans rose $0.6 billion in January alone—representing 7% annualized growth—with commercial loans climbing nearly $1.0 billion. Truist Securities analyst Brian Foran estimates first-quarter total loan growth could reach $2.0 billion, with $2.7 billion coming from commercial and industrial lending. That pace would put KeyCorp well ahead of its full-year target of 1% to 2% average loan growth.
What Investors Are Watching
The durability of that loan surge tops the list of investor questions. As Foran noted in a March 23 research report, KeyCorp’s lending pattern in 2025 saw the first half outpace the second half, with first-half growth at 4% annualized before moderating. "Whether the 1Q growth is durable going forward remains the debate," he wrote. The analyst raised his end-of-period loan growth estimate for 2026 to 5% from 3%, driven primarily by expectations for a stronger first half.
Regional banks more broadly are signaling optimism about commercial lending in 2026 as market conditions stabilize and interest rate pressure eases, but questions remain about how macro risks—including what Truist described as "heightened geopolitical and macro risk"—might constrain activity later in the year.
Investment banking revenue presents another watch point. Foran trimmed his 2026 investment banking revenue growth estimate to 5% year-over-year from 6% "given the recent capital markets disruption," though he maintained a 3% growth forecast for 2027, citing the ongoing M&A cycle.
In the fourth quarter, KeyCorp reported earnings of $0.41 per share, topping the consensus estimate of $0.39, while revenue of $2.01 billion exceeded the $1.96 billion forecast. The beat provided momentum heading into 2026, though the bank faces year-over-year revenue headwinds as it works to offset pressures through net interest margin expansion and loan volume growth.
Thursday’s results will offer critical insight into whether KeyCorp’s early momentum represents a sustainable shift or a repeat of 2025’s front-loaded pattern—a question that will shape expectations for the full year ahead.
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