Hertz stock delivers 71% return after Fair Value model signals buy

Published 04/03/2026, 07:11 AM
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In August 2024, when Wall Street analysts were rating Hertz Global Holdings (NASDAQ:HTZ) as "Sell" and "Underweight" with price targets as low as $3, InvestingPro’s Fair Value models identified a compelling opportunity. The car rental giant was trading at $3.28, but intrinsic value analysis suggested the stock was worth $5.10—representing a 55% discount. By January 2026, Hertz hit $5.61, delivering a 71% return and validating the power of comprehensive Fair Value analysis. For investors seeking similar opportunities today, the most undervalued stocks list provides current candidates trading below their intrinsic worth.

Hertz Global Holdings, a leading car rental company with global operations, presented a classic value opportunity in mid-2024. Despite its established brand and extensive rental network, the stock had experienced brutal volatility in the preceding months, including a 42% decline in April 2024 and a 25% drop in August. When InvestingPro’s Fair Value models flagged the stock on August 14, 2024, the company’s fundamentals appeared challenging: revenue stood at $9.3 billion, EBITDA was negative $577 million, and EPS registered at -$2.51. However, the SWOT analysis revealed significant strengths that the market was overlooking—namely the potential for $500 million in incremental EBITDA through cost-cutting measures and the opportunity for new management to implement operational improvements.

The Fair Value analysis proved remarkably accurate. From the $3.28 entry point, Hertz stock climbed steadily through 2025, ultimately reaching $5.61 in January 2026—exceeding even the optimistic Fair Value target. As of April 2026, the stock trades at $5.11, still representing a 56% gain from the initial signal. This success demonstrates how InvestingPro’s models identify mispricing by aggregating multiple valuation methodologies, including discounted cash flow analysis, comparable company metrics, and market range assessments.

The investment thesis materialized as operational improvements took hold. Most significantly, EBITDA swung from negative $577 million to positive $146 million—a dramatic turnaround that validated the cost-cutting potential identified in the original analysis. Additional catalysts emerged, including Pershing Square’s stake disclosure which sent shares surging 29%, and Q3 2025 earnings that beat expectations. While revenue declined to $8.5 billion, the focus on profitability over growth proved the right strategy.

InvestingPro’s Fair Value methodology combines discounted cash flow models, peer comparisons, dividend discount analysis, and analyst consensus to calculate intrinsic worth. This multi-faceted approach helps investors identify margin of safety opportunities and determine optimal entry points—exactly as demonstrated in the Hertz case.

The Hertz success story exemplifies how systematic Fair Value analysis can uncover opportunities that conventional analyst ratings miss. Learn more about InvestingPro to access real-time Fair Value calculations, financial health scores, and comprehensive analysis tools that help identify the next undervalued opportunity before the market catches on.

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