Earnings call transcript: Emeis SA Q3 2025 sees strong stock surge after earnings

Emeis SA reported its third-quarter earnings for 2025, showcasing robust financial performance with a significant rise in stock price. The company’s revenue reached 1.48 billion euros, driven by strong growth in nursing homes and international markets. Following the earnings release, Emeis’s stock surged by 7.46%, reflecting investor confidence in its strategic initiatives and market recovery.

Key Takeaways

• Emeis SA’s revenue for Q3 2025 was 1.48 billion euros, with organic growth of 7%.
• Nursing homes led the growth, showing an 8.5% increase.
• The stock price rose by 7.46% following the earnings announcement.
• Occupancy rates improved to 88%, nearing pre-COVID levels.
• Strong performance noted in Northern European markets.

Company Performance

Emeis SA demonstrated a solid performance in Q3 2025, with organic revenue growth of 7% compared to the year-to-date growth of 6.4%. The company benefited from increased occupancy rates, particularly in its nursing homes, which saw an 8.5% growth. International markets also contributed to the growth, expanding by approximately 10%. This performance places Emeis ahead of many competitors in the healthcare sector, particularly in the European market.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: 1.48 billion euros, driven by nursing home growth.
• Occupancy rates: 88%, a year-on-year improvement of 1.8 percentage points.
• CapEx for 2025: 300 million euros, focusing on maintenance and development.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Emeis SA’s actual revenue of 1.48 billion euros exceeded market expectations, which contributed to the positive market reaction. This strong performance marks a continuation of the company’s upward trend, with the organic growth rate accelerating from previous quarters.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Emeis’s stock price increased by 7.46%, reaching 15.71 euros. This surge reflects investor optimism, as the company’s stock approaches its 52-week high of 16.19 euros. The positive sentiment is driven by Emeis’s strategic focus on expanding its nursing home operations and improving occupancy rates.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Emeis SA has provided guidance for a 15-18% increase in EBITDAR for 2025 compared to 2024’s 740 million euros. The company anticipates continued revenue growth of 4-5% annually over the mid-term, along with a 12-16% annual increase in EBITDAR. Emeis expects occupancy rates to stabilize above 90%, supported by strategic pricing and expansion initiatives.

Executive Commentary

Jean Marc Bourcier, Group CFO, expressed confidence in the company’s trajectory, stating, "We are confirming our confidence for the coming quarters." He highlighted the operational recovery and strong performance in Northern Europe, adding, "The operational recovery trajectory will continue."

Risks and Challenges

• Wage inflation negotiations could impact profitability if they exceed the expected 2% threshold.
• Market saturation in certain regions may limit growth opportunities.
• Macroeconomic pressures, such as currency fluctuations, could affect international operations.
• Regulatory changes in healthcare could pose compliance challenges.
• Potential delays in new facility developments may impact growth targets.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the impact of pricing strategies across different geographies. The management highlighted that Germany experienced the strongest pricing impact. Additionally, questions about asset disposals were addressed, with the company targeting 2.1 billion euros in disposals by December 2025.

Full transcript - Emeis SA (EMEIS) Q3 2025:

Conference Moderator: Good morning, and welcome to the MAE’s Q3 twenty twenty five Revenue Conference Call hosted by Mr. Jean Marc Poursey, Group CFO and Samuel Henri Diesbach, Investor Relations Director. The call will be structured in two parts. First, a presentation by the MAE’s Group Management team. And afterwards, there will be a Q and A session.

I will now hand over to the management team. Gentlemen, please go ahead.

Jean Marc Bourcier, Group CFO, MAE Group: Good morning to you, and thank you very much for attending this conference call related to our business activity and sales at the September 2025. I’m Jean Marc Bourcier, and before answering the question you may have with Samuel, I would like to share with you a few words about our activity and revenues. Please also note that a dedicated presentation can be found on our website. As you may have already seen in the press release published this morning, the third quarter of the year is part of a continued improvement trend that began to take shape 2024. This momentum is indeed continuing both in terms of occupancy rate and sales across all businesses and all geographies where we operate.

The third quarter even shows encouraging signs, especially in Germany, but also in our French clinics. So first, regarding occupancy rates. The momentum continued to improve quarter after quarter. The group average occupancy rate now stands at 88% in the third quarter, up 1.8 points year on year and even four points when I compare to two years ago. As you can see on Page two of the presentation, this indicator has been growing steadily and continuously for more than two years now.

If we are still below our target, the trend should continue in the coming years and should bring our performance back to the standards we do expect to reach ahead. This favorable trend is particularly visible in our nursing homes business, the group leading activity, where the average occupancy rate has now reached 87% since the beginning of the year and even 88% in the third quarter alone, up two points versus Q3 twenty twenty four. Everywhere, occupancy rate has improved, as you can see on Page three, especially in Northern Europe, plus 2.8 points in Central Europe, plus two points and in France, plus 1.7 points. In Southern Europe and Latin America, occupancy rates were so far weighed down by the impact of non yet mature facilities that we’ve opened in 2024, but the strength of the third quarter and the quick ramp up of this facility are helping to catch up. The occupancy rate is now back in line with last year levels.

Across all markets in which the group operates, occupancy rates are rising, progressively approaching pre COVID levels as it is already the case in Central Europe, where you can see that our occupancy rate now stands at 92.2. If we do a quick focus on the performance of our two major markets, France and Germany, I’m on Page four of the presentation. And as you can notice, in France, rates are nearly up 1.8 points above last year for the same quarter. Momentum remains strong and sustained with another very solid performance in Q3. In Germany, the notable improvement partly reflects the measures that we implemented recently, particularly in terms of quality with a segmented offering based on new residents’ needs, the effect of which are gradually being booked along residents’ notation.

Momentum appears to be accelerating in Germany, which is the group’s second largest market, with an average occupancy rate now reaching 88%, up almost 3.8 points versus Q3 last year. Consequently, in terms of sales, top line is posting a solid performance, up 6.4% on a pure organic basis, reflecting the gradual recovery in activities following the measures that we have taken over the last twenty four months. In the third quarter alone, the momentum was even more pronounced with an organic growth of 7%. This is interesting to note that the positive dynamic is driven mostly by nursing homes, up 8.5% versus last year, and by international market, I will come back to it, growing at around 10%. This increase in revenue year to date reflects the combination of three factors, as you can see on this slide, all of which were favorable, as you can see on Page five.

First, a positive price effect, supporting organic growth by EUR 149,000,000 or up 3.8%. So this is representing the largest contribution to sales growth. As a reminder, the price effect was 3.4% at the June. So clearly, it’s suggesting that the favorable pricing effect is increasing, and this is notably true in Germany and in Belgium. Second, as already commented, an increase in the average occupancy rate at the September of plus 1.8 points, contributing to 1.7% organic growth.

And third, the impact of recently opened facilities with ramp up contributed one additional percent organic growth, and this is mainly true in The Netherlands and in Spain. For nursing homes, I’m on Page six. For nursing homes, which is two thirds of the group business, this publication marks the continuation of the recovery during the third quarter, plus 8.4% in organic growth, in line with the solid achievement reached so far in the previous years. But as you can see also on this slide, the Clinics business, which is showing a more moderate momentum earlier this year, is now recovering sharply. The organic growth of the Clinics business in Q3 is up 4.4% versus Q3 twenty twenty four compared to only 1.8% at the June and even 0.6 only in Q1.

So we see clearly the acceleration of our activity in the clinic business. This sequential improvement is particularly noticeable in France, which reflect both the negative base effect for the first quarter, which are smoothing over the nine month period and also the initial effects of new measures taken during the first half of the year, including better offer segmentation of services provided and also a new pricing strategy. During the first half, dedicated action plan have been tailored for each of the French clinics, identifying levers for performance enhancements. And since then, on a weekly basis, these facilities are more closely monitored, and we are starting to see the impact of those recent measures. The evidence of the strong growth for the nondomestic markets, so everything outside France, can be seen on Page seven.

Internationally, performance is indeed very solid with organic growth rates approaching 10% and even a little bit above 10%, notably in Northern Europe and in Southern Europe. In those two regions, we are benefiting from strong pricing impacts, notably in Germany, in Belgium and in Austria, but also an increase in occupancy rates, particularly noticeable in The Netherlands and Austria, and the ramp up of recently opened facility, as I was telling you earlier, in The Netherlands and in Spain. As a conclusion, we obviously do reiterate our guidance for 2025 and beyond. We are confirming our confidence for the coming quarters and also over a longer term period. In the short term, the operational recovery trajectory will continue under the combined effect of recovery in occupancy rates, the capture of favorable price effects, but also a better control of our operating expenses.

For 2025, I remind you that the group is having a guidance for an EBITDAR increase between 1518% on a like for like basis versus 2024, therefore, extending and accentuating the performance improvement momentum that began 2024. In the longer term, the group anticipates that the improvement in financial performance will continue. Between now and 2028. The growth momentum in operating margin will be supported by a gradual normalization of occupancy rates to industry standards, namely above 90%, the continued capture of favorable price effects but also the control of operating expenses, which the group anticipates to continue to grow those expenses will continue to grow at a slower pace than its revenue. The trajectory on a like for like basis, therefore, the impact of potential operational disposals, is expected to continue, and MAE, therefore, reiterates its midterm outlook with, first, an average growth in revenue between 45% between 2024 and 2028 and second, an average annual growth for EBITDAR between 1216%, again, between 2024 and 2028.

Both of those

Alexander Deyterc, Analyst, Bernstein: are at

Jean Marc Bourcier, Group CFO, MAE Group: a like for like basis. So thank you very much for your attention, and we are now available with Samuel to answer all the questions you may have.

Conference Moderator: We have a question from Alexander Deyterc from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Alexander Deyterc, Analyst, Bernstein: Yes, good morning. I just have two questions. One is a bit of a just a maintenance question on the price impact that you had in the third quarter alone. So within your 7% like for like growth, how much was price year on year? And the second one is if you could provide us a ballpark or maybe the maximum amount of further disposal disposal transactions that you’re currently engaged in, what should we reasonably expect on this front?

Thank you very much.

Jean Marc Bourcier, Group CFO, MAE Group: Good morning, sir. So on your first question, the price impact, the price component was 3.4% at the June, and it is now 3.8% at the September. So for Q3 only, we are at around plus 4%. So we see an acceleration of our pricing strategy that has been successful in Q3. Regarding the second part of your question, we are obviously sticking to what we said at the September when we announced the H1 performance.

We have, after the setup of our real estate company, we are targeting for the period between 07/01/2022 and December 2025, a total disposal plan of €2,100,000,000 and we have no further announcement to be made on that respect today. And we are completely in line with that target. So that means that we will obviously largely exceed the initial ambition of €1,500,000,000 that we had historically. Do you want to add something? Yes, just had a quick go ahead.

Yes.

Alexander Deyterc, Analyst, Bernstein: Just a quick follow-up on pricing. Is it uniform across geographies? Do you see better traction in Germany? And how is France versus the average?

Jean Marc Bourcier, Group CFO, MAE Group: Yes. The growth has been very good in Germany for two reasons. First, because our occupancy rate is now catching up more rapidly than expected even. And second, because we have reviewed the segmentation of our homes. We defined upper segment of our segmentation called comfort rooms with a higher level of quality, and we are able to better price those comfort rooms.

So in a nutshell, yes, we have been particularly pleased with the evolution of our activity in Germany. So I remind you that it represents €1,000,000,000 of revenue per annum, and this is our second largest market. And by the way, we have also, in Germany, the catch up effect in our pricing strategy of the past inflation. So, we are able to pass on historical inflation to our customers, which is good news for us.

Alexander Deyterc, Analyst, Bernstein: That’s very clear. Thank you very much.

Conference Moderator: Now we have a question from Christophe Raffaele Denis from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.

Christophe Raffaele Denis, Analyst, ODDO BHF: Hi, good morning gentlemen. Is it possible to have in the pricing effect the split between what is your yield management and what is the regulation price increase? That would be my first question. The second one is, Jean Marc, if I hear you correctly, I understand that you’re slightly above your expectation in some zones or in some businesses. So I’d like to hear that point, how much are we comfortable in advance compared to your plan?

And the third question would be, is it possible to have an update of the opened bed year to date in terms of number of beds actually and not only for Netherlands and Spain, but for the whole group if possible? Thank you.

Jean Marc Bourcier, Group CFO, MAE Group: Samuel will answer the third question.

Samuel Henri Diesbach, Investor Relations Director, MAE Group: Christophe, I’m just checking the exact number of beds opened by the 2024. What I can tell you is that globally, it’s around 3% of the total sales. That’s an occupancy rate on these ones, which is slightly above 50% and an EBITDA margin, which is already slightly above 10%. We have there three or four openings in terms of facilities in Spain. And I think it’s a dozen in The Netherlands, but I need to double check these figures, I will provide you with the number of beds which have been opened these

Jean Marc Bourcier, Group CFO, MAE Group: past twelve months. We are opening on average between 2,500 new beds out of the total of 100,000, and this is why it contributes to approximately one percent to 1.5% to organic growth year on year. And at the September, it’s 1%. Your second question, Christophe, Rafael, was regarding are there any location where we had particularly good surprises this year? Yes, as you can notice, we are particularly pleased with the evolution of Northern Europe.

Northern Europe includes four countries as far as MAS is concerned, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. And yes, the evolution of those activities in those regions is even slightly ahead of expectations. Well done to our local colleagues for the quick recovery. In terms of price increase, I’m not sure that I have fully catch your question. You want me to give you an order of magnitude of the split of the price increase between public subsidy on one hand and private pricing on the other hand, if I understand correctly.

So for the nursing homes business, the activity is almost split evenly between what is invoiced directly to the family and what is invoiced from the states, what is cashed in from the states. It’s very difficult to answer because it varies from one country to another one. Public subsidy can go up from 1% in some countries to 4% in other countries. So it’s very difficult to give you that split on the top of my head. My answer might sound a little bit frustrating, but it’s difficult to say.

Christophe Raffaele Denis, Analyst, ODDO BHF: What

Jean Marc Bourcier, Group CFO, MAE Group: we can tell you, obviously, is that with the price increase of 4% in Q4, we have a price increase that is above the natural inflation of our costs. That’s a fact. That’s a reality.

Samuel Henri Diesbach, Investor Relations Director, MAE Group: And just coming back on the first question that you had, the figure that I found in the meantime is that the number of beds opened this past twelve months should be around in The Netherlands and in Spain. That should be around 1,100 bps. So exactly in the range I was giving you,

Conference Moderator: Now we have a question from Laurent Jules Barre from BNP Please go ahead.

Jean Marc Bourcier, Group CFO, MAE Group: Good morning. Just one question following up what you said regarding the fact that your prices are going above or is better than the evolution of your cost. So how is moving or is it evolving the wage negotiation for next year? What do you see in terms of wage inflation for the company in 2026? It varies from one country to another one, but we are starting the negotiation with the union representatives in the various countries, I would say, at a level that is lower than 2%.

I don’t want to be much more precise because I don’t want to give the impression to the unions that we are making a public announcement before we are reaching an agreement with them. But it shall be, in most of the countries, below 2%. Thank you.

Conference Moderator: Now we have a question from David Sardin from Kepler. Please go ahead.

David Sardin, Analyst, Kepler: Yeah. Good morning, gentlemen. I have a couple of questions. First one is just to have a clarification on the new bed. Your decision to come from your bed, is it a commitment because of the past decision, or is it some new decision?

Second question is regarding your guidance, as I would like just to to have a to to have some positions, when you say that you target plus 15 to plus 18 EBITDA growth for this year, can you give us the basis? What is the number? And when you expect the same trade of plus 12 to plus 16 for the next year, what could be the EBITDA 2025 on a pro form a basis?

Jean Marc Bourcier, Group CFO, MAE Group: On your first question, the impact of the new openings for 2025 mostly relates to decision that were made in 2024. We need roughly, let’s say, eighteen months before we decide to invest in a new facility and when the new residents are arriving. Just for your information, the investment decision process within MEIS is totally centralized. For every dollar that is invested by any of our subsidiary for development, the decision is being made by Laurent Guillaume and myself. So, have a weekly investment committee that decides to go or not to go ahead with new developments.

So, we are totally able to control the level of development that we want to do and in which geography we wish to allocate our financial resources. With regards to the guidance, that’s very simple. The basis for comparison is 2024. The EBITDA for 2024 was €740,000,000 So you will need to apply plus 15% to 18% growth on that number. Keeping in mind that we have also this is a like for like comparison, keeping in mind that we have also some disposal of geography.

For instance, we announced a few months ago that we have sold our activity in Czech Republic. So we will need to take that into consideration when applying the organic growth. But clearly, the basis for comparison is the €740,000,000 of EBITDA in 2024. And this is the basis for comparison for both the 2025 annual guidance and the medium term guidance, which I disclosed, and which is an annual average growth rate between 2024 and 2028.

David Sardin, Analyst, Kepler: Okay. Very clear. If I may, can you have can we have an update on your CapEx plan between maintenance and expansion for this year and next year?

Jean Marc Bourcier, Group CFO, MAE Group: For next year, we didn’t express ourselves yet. But for this year, the order of magnitude is €300,000,000 So we will be investing this year €300,000,000 That is split between approximately twothree in maintenance. And when I say maintenance, this is real estate maintenance and IT because we need to modernize our IT system. So we have a sizable amount of investment to be made within IT and one third into development, development being setup of new residents. So that’s the order of magnitude, 300,000,000 of CapEx, twothree maintenance and onethree development.

Conference Moderator: There are no more questions at this time. So I will hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Jean Marc Bourcier, Group CFO, MAE Group: Well, as a conclusion, as you have understood, a good quarter for MEES with an acceleration of our growth. And obviously, we remain today and the following days at your service. Should you have any more questions, we would be happy to answer Samuel and myself. Thank you very much, and

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