Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
Investing.com -- Investors have been so focused on hedging against further deterioration — from the ongoing U.S./Israel-Iran conflict to oil prices, credit stress, and rate uncertainty — that they may be unprepared for a stabilizing macro backdrop, Evercore ISI says.
"There is one scenario investors may be unprepared for … Stability," the team led by Julian Emanuel wrote in a note.
This setup would involve a ceasefire or de-escalation in the Middle East, oil retreating toward $88 a barrel, the Federal Reserve holding or cutting rates, and the 10-year Treasury yield staying rangebound between 4.0% and 4.6%.
“Such a confluence of events would reinforce 2%+ U.S. GDP in 2026, increase the odds of a Fed that cuts rates before year-end, and keeps the USD essentially the “non-event” it has been for 9+ months,” the strategists said.
They argue that the structural bull market that began in late 2022 would have “further to run in 2026, supported by another year of double-digit EPS growth that has historically been positive for stocks.”
To position for that scenario, the brokerage canvassed its fundamental analysts across sectors and assembled a list of stocks they believe are best placed to outperform if conditions normalize.
In technology, software analyst Kirk Materne favors Microsoft and Snowflake as "scaffolding" names, along with Salesforce and ServiceNow in applications.
Internet analyst Mark Mahaney highlights Amazon, which he sees trading at a three-year trough P/E multiple with the probability of a fundamental inflection point this year.
In semiconductors, analyst Mark Lipacis flags auto-exposed analog names — ON Semiconductor, Microchip Technology, and NXP Semiconductors — as cyclical recovery plays should rates ease and auto demand recover.
In consumer, airlines stand out as a key theme. Delta’s March sales are running 25% year-on-year, and United has recorded its ten largest booking weeks ever this quarter.
Among industrials, Caterpillar is highlighted for its backlog visibility, with analyst David Raso noting the company’s 2026 backlog coverage is the highest in over 15 years.
In financials, several fintech names — including Affirm, Adyen, and Block — are flagged as having sold off sharply despite intact fundamentals, with Evercore’s payments analyst Adam Frisch arguing their dislocations "appear to price excessive negativity."
Elsewhere, Evercore analysts highlight names including PulteGroup in homebuilding, Danaher and Align Technology in healthcare, and Union Pacific in industrials as further candidates should the macro backdrop improve.
